Research
Research Publications
"Submarine Cables and Container Shipments: Two Immediate Risks to the US Economy if China Invades Taiwan," Mercatus Policy Brief, August 29, 2022. Joint with Christine McDaniel.
"Noneconomic Aspects of a US-Taiwan Free Trade Agreement: Insights with a New Tool," Mercatus Policy Brief, August 2021. Joint with Christine McDaniel.
"On the Observational Implications of Knightian Uncertainty," The B.E. Journal of Theoretical Economics, August 2020. Joint with Kevin A. Hassett. (working paper)
"Emergency Executive Powers: Not Needed Indefinitely," Mercatus Policy Brief, April 2020. Joint with Christos A. Makridis and James Diddams.
"The 'Value' of Propaganda: Machine Predictions of Rare Events Based on Text Data," Yale Journal of International Affairs, Spring 2020. Joint with Julian Chan.
"Political Institutions and the Governmental Burden on Businesses," Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics, June 2019. Joint with Ruiqing Zhong. (working paper)
"Policy Change Index: A Simulated Example," Quantitative Notes, December 2018. Joint with Julian Chan.
"The Candidates in Their Own Words: A Textual Analysis of 2016 Presidential Primary Debates," AEI Economic Perspectives, April 2016.
"To What Extent Defining a Group Predicates on Defining Other Groups?" Procedia – Social and Behavioral Sciences, March 2011. Joint with Y. Stephen Chiu.
Working Papers
"Progressivity, Government Size, and Redistribution in an Optimal Tax Model," AEI Economics Working Paper No. 2021-07, May 2021. Joint with Sita Slavov.
"Words Speak Louder Than Numbers: Estimating China's COVID-19 Severity with Deep Learning," Mercatus Working Paper, December 2020. Joint with Julian Chan, Kwan-Yuet Ho, Kit Lee, and Kawai Leung.
Source code: github.com/PSLmodels/PCI-Outbreak
"Predicting Authoritarian Crackdowns: A Machine Learning Approach," Mercatus Working Paper, January 2020. Joint with Julian Chan.
Source code: github.com/PSLmodels/PCI-Crackdown
"Reading China: Predicting Policy Change with Machine Learning," AEI Economics Working Paper No. 2018-11, April 2019. Joint with Julian Chan.
Source code: github.com/PSLmodels/PCI-China
"Sanctioning an Unruly Ally: Understanding Sino-North Korean Trade through the People’s Daily," AEI Economics Working Paper No. 2017-22, February 2018 .
"Governmental System and Economic Volatility in Democracies," AEI Economics Working Paper No. 2018-06, June 2018. Joint with Chen Cheng and Christopher Li.
"A Theory of the Material Foundation of Psychology: With an Application to the Non-Salience of Economic Classes." Unpublished. Joint with Y. Stephen Chiu.