Research
Research Publications
Research Publications
- "On the Observational Implications of Knightian Uncertainty," The B.E. Journal of Theoretical Economics, forthcoming. Joint with Kevin A. Hassett. (working paper)
- "Emergency Executive Powers: Not Needed Indefinitely," Mercatus Policy Brief, April 2020. Joint with Christos A. Makridis and James Diddams.
- "The 'Value' of Propaganda: Machine Predictions of Rare Events Based on Text Data," Yale Journal of International Affairs, March 2020. Joint with Julian T. Chan.
- "Political Institutions and the Governmental Burden on Businesses," Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics, June 2019. Joint with Ruiqing Zhong. (working paper)
- "Policy Change Index: A Simulated Example," Quantitative Notes, December 2018. Joint with Julian T. Chan.
- "The Candidates in Their Own Words: A Textual Analysis of 2016 Presidential Primary Debates," AEI Economic Perspectives, April 2016. (Media: Real Clear Politics)
- "To What Extent Defining a Group Predicates on Defining Other Groups?" Procedia – Social and Behavioral Sciences, March 2011. Joint with Y. Stephen Chiu.
Working Papers
Working Papers
- "Predicting Authoritarian Crackdowns: A Machine Learning Approach," Mercatus Working Paper, January 2020. Joint with Julian T. Chan. Under review.
- Website: policychangeindex.org
- Source code: github.com/PSLmodels/PCI-Crackdown
- "Reading China: Predicting Policy Change with Machine Learning," AEI Economics Working Paper No. 2018-11, April 2019. Joint with Julian T. Chan. R&R requested by Political Analysis.
- Website: policychangeindex.org
- Source code: github.com/PSLmodels/PCI-China
- Selected media: Yahoo Finance, BBC, South China Morning Post, Asia Times, Hong Kong Economic Journal, Am730, JoongAng Ilbo
- "Sanctioning an Unruly Ally: Understanding Sino-North Korean Trade through the People’s Daily," AEI Economics Working Paper No. 2017-22, February 2018 . (Media: The National Interest)
- "Governmental System and Economic Volatility in Democracies," AEI Economics Working Paper No. 2018-06, June 2018. Joint with Chen Cheng and Christopher Li. Under revision.
- "A Theory of the Material Foundation of Psychology: With an Application to the Non-Salience of Economic Classes." Unpublished. Joint with Y. Stephen Chiu.